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VorherigeSeite 770 von 777Nächste Zitat von Gast am 10. Juni 2025, 14:02 Uhr
Хотите найти подробную информацию коллекционеров? Эта платформа предоставляет исчерпывающие материалы погружения в тему монет !
Здесь доступны редкие монеты из разных эпох , а также драгоценные предметы .
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червонец
Если вы начинающий или профессиональный коллекционер , наши обзоры и руководства помогут углубить экспертизу.
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Присоединяйтесь сообщества энтузиастов и следите аукционов в мире нумизматики.
Хотите найти подробную информацию коллекционеров? Эта платформа предоставляет исчерпывающие материалы погружения в тему монет !
Здесь доступны редкие монеты из разных эпох , а также драгоценные предметы .
Просмотрите каталог с подробными описаниями и детальными снимками, чтобы сделать выбор .
червонец
Если вы начинающий или профессиональный коллекционер , наши обзоры и руководства помогут углубить экспертизу.
Не упустите возможностью приобрести лимитированные монеты с сертификатами.
Присоединяйтесь сообщества энтузиастов и следите аукционов в мире нумизматики.
Zitat von Gast am 10. Juni 2025, 14:04 Uhr
Ищете ресурсы коллекционеров? Наш сайт предлагает всё необходимое погружения в тему монет !
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Воспользуйтесь возможностью приобрести эксклюзивные артефакты с сертификатами.
Присоединяйтесь сообщества энтузиастов и будьте в курсе последних новостей в мире нумизматики.
Ищете ресурсы коллекционеров? Наш сайт предлагает всё необходимое погружения в тему монет !
Здесь доступны уникальные монеты из исторических периодов, а также драгоценные находки.
Просмотрите каталог с подробными описаниями и детальными снимками, чтобы найти раритет.
золотые монеты цена
Если вы начинающий или профессиональный коллекционер , наши обзоры и гайды помогут углубить экспертизу.
Воспользуйтесь возможностью приобрести эксклюзивные артефакты с сертификатами.
Присоединяйтесь сообщества энтузиастов и будьте в курсе последних новостей в мире нумизматики.
Zitat von Gast am 11. Juni 2025, 19:25 Uhr
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Zitat von Gast am 11. Juni 2025, 20:47 Uhr
There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
[url=https://alfainvestor.ru/chto-ne-tak-s-investicionnoj-kompaniej-life-is-good/]жесткое групповое порно[/url]
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
[url=https://alfainvestor.ru/chto-ne-tak-s-investicionnoj-kompaniej-life-is-good/]жесткое групповое порно[/url]
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
Zitat von Gast am 12. Juni 2025, 12:40 Uhr
Заказывала коллегам – все в восторге!
букет невесты томск
Заказывала коллегам – все в восторге!
букет невесты томск
Zitat von Gast am 12. Juni 2025, 13:04 Uhr
Букет как с обложки журнала – стильный и свежий!
заказ цветов томск
Букет как с обложки журнала – стильный и свежий!
заказ цветов томск
Zitat von Gast am 12. Juni 2025, 13:31 Uhr
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شركة تنظيف خزانات بالبكيرية
Zitat von Gast am 12. Juni 2025, 13:33 Uhr
Флористы – волшебники, спасибо за красоту!
доставка цветов томск на дом
Флористы – волшебники, спасибо за красоту!
доставка цветов томск на дом
Zitat von Gast am 12. Juni 2025, 14:08 Uhr
Тёща теперь меня любит - спасибо!
доставка цветов томск на дом
Тёща теперь меня любит - спасибо!
доставка цветов томск на дом
Zitat von Gast am 12. Juni 2025, 17:24 Uhr
Discover the iconic Patek Philippe Nautilus, a horological masterpiece that merges sporty elegance with exquisite craftsmanship .
Launched in 1976 , this legendary watch redefined high-end sports watches, featuring signature angular cases and horizontally grooved dials .
From stainless steel models like the 5990/1A-011 with a 55-hour energy retention to opulent gold interpretations such as the 5811/1G-001 with a azure-toned face, the Nautilus caters to both avid enthusiasts and casual admirers.
New Patek Nautilus 5980 wristwatch
Certain diamond-adorned versions elevate the design with gemstone accents, adding unmatched glamour to the timeless profile.
With market values like the 5726/1A-014 at ~$106,000, the Nautilus remains a prized asset in the world of premium watchmaking.
Whether you seek a vintage piece or contemporary iteration , the Nautilus epitomizes Patek Philippe’s legacy of excellence .
Discover the iconic Patek Philippe Nautilus, a horological masterpiece that merges sporty elegance with exquisite craftsmanship .
Launched in 1976 , this legendary watch redefined high-end sports watches, featuring signature angular cases and horizontally grooved dials .
From stainless steel models like the 5990/1A-011 with a 55-hour energy retention to opulent gold interpretations such as the 5811/1G-001 with a azure-toned face, the Nautilus caters to both avid enthusiasts and casual admirers.
New Patek Nautilus 5980 wristwatch
Certain diamond-adorned versions elevate the design with gemstone accents, adding unmatched glamour to the timeless profile.
With market values like the 5726/1A-014 at ~$106,000, the Nautilus remains a prized asset in the world of premium watchmaking.
Whether you seek a vintage piece or contemporary iteration , the Nautilus epitomizes Patek Philippe’s legacy of excellence .
VorherigeSeite 770 von 777Nächste
